What does another Trump presidency mean for the rest of us? – KSINSIGHTS SEP 2024
Published on 07 Oct 2024
With everyone glued to their computer or television screens – for myself a whole ocean away – the long awaited presidential debate on the 10th of September took place. From Trump saying that he didn’t want to debate, the spectacle of the former against Biden, and the countless rallies where he displayed dissatisfaction and flat out distaste that she was a woman, the climax to this moment was a media frenzy. The debate started to become a turning point for many Americans; whether they engaged former candidate Donald Trump or a new face as the democratic nominee, Kamala Harris.
Trump’s first presidency was laden with inconsistencies, spontaneity, instability and under the table policies. The democrats, who are not absolved from criticism including scrutinising the current presidency of Biden, do not have a penchant for dealing out cabinet positions to their personal wealthy friends. When the late prime minister of Japan visited Trump in the days when he won over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and gifted him gold plated golf clubs, Trump identified him as a friend. There was no talk of his policies or what their diplomatic relationship was, just good faith in the form of gifts that showed loyalty. This strange pattern continues in ignoring the office served; once in that position, they are a public servant and not a private citizen. Using official platforms to promote one’s personal businesses 426 times, is unconstitutional; the advantage or profit from any business dealings and foreign intervention is illegal, known as the emoluments clause. The president’s emoluments clause “prohibits a sitting President from receiving emoluments from federal or state governments, except for his fixed salary.” In any holding of an office of government – accepting gifts, payment or dolling out promotions regarding personally privately owned equity, is bad faith and a large conflict of interest. Donald Trump is the only president in modern history who has faced multiple lawsuits during his presidency over violations of this clause.
With this in mind, it is not far from impossible to predict exactly what will happen in the realm of foreign affairs if there is another Trump presidency. Looking at his track record on how he positions himself, specifically domestically, cues can be taken to a nature that borders on selfishness. It is apparent that the merit of holding professional relationships in the name of diplomacy comes of little value; best displayed by promoting his family members into positions of political power, and firing individuals that disagree with him, regardless of what their tenure or credentials are – most notably the former director of the FBI, James Comey who refused to perjure himself on the stand testifying in front of Congress in 2017.
That temper is reflected outwardly, distorting overseas diplomacy. Using Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as an example, in 2017 he offered to explain Australia’s borders and immigration policies in a bid to aid Trump on how immigration is mitigated within his home country. His attempt to relate to the United States and build relations in a congratulatory call fell flat. Trump responded that he was “the world’s greatest person” and argued wrongly about how a United States executive order was to work.
The conversation leaned on an incorrect nature that Trump had about the immigration policies of the country he was in charge of. Following the aftermath of the explosive phone call, Turnbull said that “ambassadors and foreign ministers, no matter how capable, could offer much less assistance or influence”, citing that the relationships would only form between Trump himself and the foreign leader. There is a threat of none or strained diplomatic relations everytime he gets into an argument. Although at the beginning of his presidency – and things may have begun to change, not knowing the political system he won is a cause for concern because of the tone that it sets; lazy and completely unprepared duelling.
When the quality of a diplomatic relationship between two leaders of a country is based on pleasantries, it dispels that there is any solid base to that relationship at all. A disconnect is created that favours niceties instead of diplomacy and bureaucracy. Praise and gifts should not be perceived as a bargaining chip to establish a relationship that needs to be built on mutual respect and diplomatic trust. These are paramount to not only discussions that happen in the upper echelon of the political sphere but to the relationships between countries where severed ties and rocky partnerships can prove to be a disaster. From the beginning, when he was elected at the end of 2015, he was known as a man who would do anything to get a photo-op with other world leaders. It is understandable why governments are nervous for round two.
Trump’s economic decisions are another point of contention for his re-election. It all stems from the fact that he is a businessman who thought if he knew how to run a business, he could run a country. Unfortunately, that falls into fallacy when looking at his resume of how he dealt with the economic crisis the United States faced – domestically with his policies, Covid 19, the subsequent inflation, and out of their borders – the trade war.
The legislation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that was introduced and amended in 2018, is a policy that he pushed for hard in his campaign trail; lowering taxes for single and dual income households and corporate debt. Like his previous endeavours, however, the end product was not something that promised a net positive. The median income for U.S. households was $63,179 in 2019, up only 0.9% on an inflation adjusted basis from $61,372 in 2017, a stark difference to the tax cuts that were supposed to garner large savings, now put forth as statistically insignificant by the census bureau. The system that he has put into place, as well as overhauling the previous system has created confusion, making tax avoidance more likely in the country. The more borders drawn around economic activity, the greater the motivation to bypass those restrictions and falsify categories for lower rates, creating corruption and ultimately a bigger mess when it comes to the consequences those poor decisions will have for the economy.
Covid-19 was a large cut in the Trump administration, showing irresponsibility and a lack of urgency that was then left up to state, and governor devices, instead of a federal call to take the pandemic seriously. With the blunder during the coronavirus pandemic, it is a huge telling of who he is socially and what he considers important. It taught us two things about his presidency: one, when times get tough he protects hisdealings first, illustrated by the Paycheck Protection Program loans that were also deemed a conflict of interest and doled out to companies owned by him and his friends. The second, showing gross negligence that resulted in over a million dead and even more millions suffering from adverse effects of long-term covid, in a country that already does not have a public healthcare system.
By denying the existence of the virus, shutting down the government, downplaying the vaccine to only convince others it was not needed, and then taking it in secret, shows not only an oversight but irresponsibility. There is a general uncaringness towards his constituents; if he cared so little for the citizens who voted him in, it is arguable that he takes that note with everyone else, especially in foreign policy.
That carelessness was used when the trade war started against China in 2018 – and is still ongoing. According to economists, it may yield short term positives on the domestic economy by protecting its product, but counters] in the long run – a slow GDP and making the country less competitive on the world market. Recently, when speaking at a campaign in Georgia, Trump said that he would build upon tariff policies in his re-elected first term once more, but extend this policy towards allies and foes alike. A blanket policy of 20% to all countries is in the scope he has stated when promoting his “America First” ideology. There is a threat to introduce a 60% or higher tariff on Chinese imports, a sharp increase to what was in his previous administration; disrupting the global trade dynamics to the tune of $250 billion being imposed on Chinese goods. This did not only cost America $195 billion, but also displaced and lost 245,000 jobs. With the power these two countries have in manufacturing and technology, much is lost in a trade war that doesn’t foster any type of cooperation, creating a breach in diplomacy. This has adverse consequences because of the rhetoric that becomes present; a fight that did not have to be fought and a playground game of who comes out on top first.
With a universal baseline tariff that Trump wants to impose, the economies of Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea will be affected because they are manufacturing heavy economies. Malaysia is the 7th largest semiconductor exporter in the world; if Trump implements this more stringent ban – not only does it cause havoc on the supply chain, but increases domestic and international rivalry which could have Chinese exporters look elsewhere to strengthen their presence in non-US markets. Either way, smaller countries and therefore weaker manufacturing sects in tandem, will be impacted prompting vulnerability of our position within the market. Whilst Malaysia gained from the new opportunities that opened in 2018, its integration into the global supply chain made it vulnerable to distributions caused by the trade war and the subsequent tariffs. Trade is the key growth driver for many Asian countries, including Malaysia, and the new marker of tariffs Trump plans to impose makes the future of seeming opportunity restricted at best. Even though Malaysia takes a neutral approach, procuring investments from China and the U.S by not taking sides, it does not provide a clear barter in the long run. With modern economies relying heavily on global supply chains and the promise of even more tariffs on the horizon, uncertainty is paramount.
These cornerstones of Trump’s economic policy domestically and abroad show a carelessness that is a massive cause for concern; the only words that matter are his – bipartisan approvals, non-partisan economists, healthcare officials, independent research bodies and the will of his constituents do not matter.
There is a measured and growing movement recognising the impact of Trump taking office in 2015, giving a rise to unsavoury truths. Trump has become a symbol of far right ideology – not only because of what he excuses but because of his base. It would not be far off to assume that he expresses racist sentiments, with people finding a champion in the former president: avoiding persecution for crimes committed in his name.
When the former then allows for this type of behaviour to succeed, it does not become a question of how that ideology is curated and what it entails, it becomes a statement that this is the ideology presented because the base is made up of people that do not get any pushback from Trump himself, even if the rest of the country and officials have condemned that behaviour.
Trump isn’t so morally confused that he does not understand that things are wrong, as presented by his very public career with TV shows, interviews and being a celebrity before he ran for president. It can be said that his legacy before may not have been of his making, it is still a lack of accountability that follows his legacy. When the business and economic acumen are taken out of the equation, there is a sense of moral dread that rises because of the track record that has been displayed on his campaign for the election, how he is in office and most recently, how he deals under pressure – Covid 19 being an overly stark example of that. When a country like the U.S. allows for distasteful rhetoric to be part of its highest office – what does it signal to the rest of the world?
Ultimately, it is up to the people in the country, and the citizens that have registered abroad, to decide who the 47th president of the United States is going to be. Being in the United States when Trump was elected and seeing the political turmoil displayed on election night, waking up on January 6th to a flashing phone screen, ushered in a new era. This period was not because there was unrest, it was because in the minds of so many, someone who never held political office, with indictments under his belt and a flurry of sporadic celebrity TV activity, suddenly sat at one of the most important desks in the world. With the election of his office in 2020, the U.S. inadvertently allowed an open window and within that bloomed an opportunity for bad behaviour to be followed and be pardoned.
With a real possibility of another Trump presidency on the horizon, it will be littered with inconsistencies – as his track record proves. Consistently falsifying facts like a 50% inflation rate, and blatant lying such as 15 million immigrants coming in under the Biden administration; the same fallacies that litter his campaign trial now.
It does not matter if Donald Trump is a businessman, it matters that when you are president or hold any pertinence in office, you are voting for a person who is supposed to be held in high regard for everything. The rise of Trump has been nonconventional and surprising, speaking to the amount of damage he has produced within a measly four years: a change so astronomical that it shook up the roots of the U.S. political system and their democracy in modern day history. The complexity of another Trump presidency will be felt far and wide come November if he presides over the most powerful office once again.